The State Projected Employment Opportunities List contains the top 5 growth occupations within the top 25 growth industries from the short-term projections program. Additionally, it contains occupations approved by a State demand committee that lie above a determined cut-off level on a short-term projections program list of occupations ranked by the number of projected annual job openings. These occupations are matched to corresponding instructional program codes (CIP codes).

The Local Area Projected Employment Opportunities Lists are determined individually and contain the top 3 growth occupations within the top 10 growth industries for each Local Workforce Investment Area from the short-term projections program. Additionally, they contain occupations approved by each Local Area that lie above a determined cut-off level on Local Area short-term projections program lists of occupations ranked by the number of projected annual job openings. These occupations are matched to corresponding instructional program codes (CIP codes).

Short-term employment projections utilize three sources: the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) reports, the Current Employment Statistics (CES) Survey, and agriculture employment from the Census of Agriculture.

Industry Projections are produced using the Projections Suite Software. The software uses a series of statistical models to forecast employment through eight quarters. The projections are adjusted to reflect current or near future events such as closures, layoffs, openings, and expansions.

Occupational projections are produced by merging industries and occupations together into an industry-occupational matrix. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) survey is utilized for the matrix. The occupational projections are created using the Projections Suite Software.

Long-term employment projections utilize three sources: the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) reports, the Current Employment Statistics (CES) Survey, and agriculture employment from the Census of Agriculture.

Industry Projections are produced using the Projections Suite Software.< The software allows the analyst to choose from a variety of predefined, generally accepted projection models including linear and multiple regression models and shift-share models for a 10-year projection of employment. Projections are adjusted to reflect significant business employment changes.

Occupational projections are produced by merging industries and occupations together into an industry-occupational matrix. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) survey is utilized for the matrix. The occupational projections are created using the Projections Suite Software.

Base Year Employment   – The base-year employment estimate for the projection period.

Projected Employment   – The projected-year employment estimate for the projection period.

Numeric Change   – The numeric change between the Projected Employment and the Base Year Employment for the projection period.

% Change   – The percent change over the projection period. ((Projected Employment-Base Year Employment)/Base Year Employment) x 100

Annual Exits  – The annual number of exits from the labor force.

Annual Transfers  – The annual number of transfers from one occupation to another.

Annual Change  – The   annual  change in employment from base-year estimate to projected.

Total Annual Openings   – Total Annual Openings = Annual Exits + Annual Transfers + Annual Change

The Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program provides a monthly estimate of an area's labor force, employment , unemployment, and unemployment rate. Data is taken from surveys and unemployment claims recorded during the monthly reference week, which is usually the week including the 12th day of each month. Statistics are an estimate of persons by place of residence, not jobs or where a person works. In order to be considered unemployed an individual must have had no employment during the reference week, been available for work, and have made an effort to find employment for four weeks leading up to the reference week.

The Current Employment Statistics (CES) program provides a monthly count of persons on non-farm establishments payrolls (including employees on paid sick leave, paid holiday, or paid vacation) who work or receive pay for any part of the week that includes the 12th of the month. It is a count of jobs by place of work, not people. Individuals could be counted multiple times if they hold more than one job. Self-employed, unpaid volunteer or family workers, domestic workers in households, military personnel, and persons who are laid off, on leave without pay, or even on strike for the entire reference period are not included in the data.

The QCEW program produces industry employment and wage data for workers covered by State Unemployment Insurance laws and Federal workers covered by the Unemployment Compensation for Federal Employees Program. The primary source for the QCEW are the reports submitted by employers to the Arkansas Unemployment Insurance program. Employment data represents the number of workers on the payroll during the pay period including the 12th day of the month.

The Occupational Employment and Wage Survey (OEWS) is a semiannual mail survey measuring occupational employment and wage rates for wage and salary workers in nonfarm establishments, by industry, in the United States. The OEWS is a cooperative program between States and the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

The OEWS survey uses the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) system. Workers are categorized into 1 of the 770 detailed occupations. Together, these detailed occupations comprise 23 major occupational groups.

The results from this Survey are used to:

• Identify emerging and declining occupations
• Identify job skills subject to increasing or decreasing demand
• Identify areas where educational programs are needed
• Provide average earning information by occupation

• Set the company payroll
• Perform salary comparison between areas
• Decide where to locate or expand

Business Employer Dynamics, also know as BED, are data compiled by the Bureau Of Labor Statistics that track employment gains and losses at individual business locations. BED are calculated from quarterly reports provided by employers to the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program. Like QCEW data, these statistics are produced and published on a quarterly basis. The data help provide a picture of the dynamic state of the labor market.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change in the prices paid by urban consumers for a fixed basket of goods and services. Through the Consumer Expenditure Survey, the U.S. Department of Labor surveys consumers to find out what consumers buy and what share of consumer incomes are spent on each item. This survey is used to create a basket of goods purchased by the average consumer. The most commonly used index is the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, or the CPI-U. The CPI-U represents about 87 percent of the total U.S. population, but excludes consumers in rural areas, in the armed forces, and those living in institutions (such as prisons or mental institutions). The Department of Labor also publishes another index that only includes consumers who are wage earners and clerical workers, called the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical workers (the CPI-W). More information on the Consumer Price Index can be found on the Bureau of Labor Statistics website at http://www.bls.gov/cpi/.

Median Household Income

Income of Households is for the past 12 Months of a period. It includes the income of the householder and all other individuals 15 years old and over in the household, whether they are related to the householder or not. Because many households consist of only one person, average household income is usually less than average family income. Although the household income statistics cover the past 12 months, the characteristics of individuals and the composition of households refer to the time of interview. Thus, the income of the household does not include amounts received by individuals who were members of the household during all or part of the past 12 months if these individuals no longer resided in the household at the time of interview. Similarly, income amounts reported by individuals who did not reside in the household during the past 12 months but who were members of the household at the time of interview are included. However, the composition of most households was the same during the past 12 months as at the time of interview.

The median divides the income distribution into two equal parts: one-half of the cases falling below the median income and one-half above the median. For households and families, the median income is based on the distribution of the total number of households and families including those with no income. The median income for individuals is based on individuals 15 years old and over with income. Median income for households, families, and individuals is computed on the basis of a standard distribution.

Per Capita Personal Income

The Bureau of Economic Analysis’ personal income statistics show the income that U.S. residents get from paychecks, employer-provided supplements such as insurance, business ownership, rental property, Social Security and other government benefits, interest, and dividends. (Personal income doesn’t include capital gains from changes in stock prices, however.)

Per Capita Personal Income is the personal income of a given area divided by the resident population of the area.

Real Per Capita Personal Income

The Bureau of Economic Analysis’ personal income statistics show the income that U.S. residents get from paychecks, employer-provided supplements such as insurance, business ownership, rental property, Social Security and other government benefits, interest, and dividends. (Personal income doesn’t include capital gains from changes in stock prices, however.)

Real per capita personal income is the real personal income divided by midyear population.

Real Personal Income

The Bureau of Economic Analysis’ personal income statistics show the income that U.S. residents get from paychecks, employer-provided supplements such as insurance, business ownership, rental property, Social Security and other government benefits, interest, and dividends. (Personal income doesn’t include capital gains from changes in stock prices, however.)

Real personal income statistics consist of data that have been adjusted using BEA's regional price parities to reflect price differences between places – for example, consumers pay higher prices on average in New York than in Mississippi – as well as inflation nationwide.

Total Personal Income

The Bureau of Economic Analysis’ personal income statistics show the income that U.S. residents get from paychecks, employer-provided supplements such as insurance, business ownership, rental property, Social Security and other government benefits, interest, and dividends. (Personal income doesn’t include capital gains from changes in stock prices, however.) Total Personal Income is the total for the resident population of a specific area.

The unemployment rate is the ratio of the total number of unemployed to the total number in the Civilian Labor Force, expressed as a percent. The Civilian Labor Force is defined as all persons (aged 16 or older) that are classified as either employed or unemployed during the week of the 12^th of each month. The number of unemployed is all persons who were unemployed during the week of the 12^th of each month, but who were actively looking for work for at least one month. In simple terms, the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed persons looking for work divided by the total number of people in the labor force. The unemployment rate is calculated using unrounded Civilian Labor Force data.

The national unemployment rate is computed from the Current Population Survey (CPS) of about 60,000 households conducted by the Census Bureau. Residents of selected households are interviewed about their work experience. From these responses, the Bureau of Labor Statistics then estimates the size of the labor force and the number of people who are jobless.

Arkansas' unemployment rate and the rates for its individual labor market areas are computed by the Arkansas Division of Workforce Services, Labor Market Information Section in conjunction with the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Three major sources are used to compute Arkansas' rates: 1) Arkansas' monthly Current Population Survey (CPS) of 800 households in the state. 2) Data from the Current Employment Statistics Program (CES), which is a monthly estimate of Nonfarm Payroll workers. 3) State Unemployment Insurance (UI) data consisting of UI claims from local Arkansas Division of Workforce Services Offices

Unemployment Insurance claims can be filed online using the EZARC system.

Go to the Arkansas Workforce Connections website or contact the UI Service Center at 1-844-908-2178 for more information.